Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

The wave of Arab uprisings (both non-violent and violent) that started in January 2011 is a remarkable phenomenon that has attracted enormous attention from international media outlets. In fact, the Arab world has not experienced such political and social upheaval in decades. It is no coincidence that many Western countries whose security interests have been closely related to these Arab states found themselves confused by the beginning of the uprisings. Most Western security experts at the beginning were silent. A year or even a couple of months ago almost none of them could have predicted that these Arab countries would go through such deep political and social upheavals that would have such deep ramifications on the security situation in these countries, the region, and far beyond it. Caught off-balance by the Arab uprisings, Western security experts rushed to explain what the causes of the uprisings were. Who are the actors and what are the forces behind the prisings? The important question still remains – what are the possible consequences of the uprisings for Western interests? Is all the change only about the change of a few ruling persons? Or are we witnessing deeper systematic (and revolutionary) changes in some Arab countries that will have a long-term impact on the West? So far, unambiguous answers to these questions are hard to find. However, some insights related to the questions above can already be made. The aim of this article is to analyze the Arab uprisings, their causes and possible effects on Western and Lithuanian security interests. Will Lithuanian national security be affected by the Arab uprisings? Are uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain and other Arab countries important for Lithuanian national security? Can Lithuania ignore the events that are happening in regions far away from Lithuania’s borders?