Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The article deals with the problem of future development threats based on the methodology of industry foresight. As an empirical basis for this direction of forecasting, the authors study the mining and metallurgical complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan as a leading factor in the development of the entire national economy. The study is a pilot and focuses on assessing the risks that have formed that could pose a serious threat to the development of the industry, the economy and the country as a whole in the future. Summarizing the world experience in applying the foresight methodology, the authors use it to predict the security and sustainability of development in the medium-term. Using the risk mapping method, the authors identify safety zones in the development trends of the mining and metallurgical industry. The assessment of threats and risks also highlights the leading actors that affect the development of the industry. The main risks for Kazakhstan’s mining and metallurgical enterprises are the lack or shortage of local labor and its low skills. Automation of production processes and digitalization of production are becoming the leading trends in the development of the industry. The problem of improving the quality of workforce training and mastering the necessary skills by specialists is a serious threat to the development of the industry. The authors suggest using foresight tools not only to assess risks, but also to prevent their development into future threats.

In the current conditions of global competition, various regions are struggling to attract investment and human resources. The most successful are creative clusters in which a new product with increased consumer value is created. However, for the formation of creative clusters it is necessary to provide a number of conditions: tolerance, talents, technology. Tolerance implies the presence of specialists with different competencies and behaviors. A decrease in the tolerance coefficient leads not only to a risk of low susceptibility of cultural indigents from other countries, but also to a decrease in the variety of forms and ways of thinking, creative realization, selfexpression, which directly affects the country’s innovative and economic development.By the example of assessing the potential of creative clusters in Kazakhstan, it is shown that the loss of tolerance leads to a risk of a decrease in creative potential. The calculation of mathematical clustering was carried out in the STATISTICA program. The state should ensure multicultural diversity for the conditions of innovative development. By an example of assessing the potential of creative clusters in Kazakhstan, it is shown that the loss of tolerance leads to a risk of a decrease in creative potential. The state should ensure multicultural diversity for the conditions of innovative development. A decrease in tolerance directly reduces the potential for the formation of creative spaces, and is also an indicator of the risk of monocultural development, the lag of Kazakhstan in the educational, scientific and innovative spheres of the international country community.