Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

In today’s globalized world characterized by economic independence, which is a measurable component of the level of relations among countries, economic dependence started to affect the direction, content, and intensity of these relations. Thus, the economy has taken the central role of diplomatic activities, while the border between the traditional political and diplomatic activities has become less visible. Purpose of the article: However, to express a numerical value-added for the economy, it is necessary to define the econometric model for calculating the correlation above precisely. It is necessary to define the order of integration of a series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates. The research will try to prove the paper’s primary hypothesis, which states that a series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates activity movements are fractionally integrated. Methods: This will be tested by standard stationarity I(0) and unit root I(1) tests and fractional integration tests. The following tests were used to create tests of fractional integration: Geweke Porter-Hudak (1983), Log Periodogram Regression test (GPH), and Moulines–Soulier (1999) Log Periodogram test (MS) Davidson and Sibbertsen (2009). through the program Time Series Modelling version 4.48. Findings & Value added: The stationarity I(0) and unit root I(1) tests, as well as the fractional integration tests, showed that the series of economic diplomacy movement are commonly fractionally integrated, by which this paper’s hypothesis was proved, namely that the series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates activity movements are fractionally integrated. Since the stationarity, I(0) and unit root I(1) tests, as well as the fractional integration tests showed that series are commonly fractionally integrated, along with the simultaneous use of the structural relation and fractionally integrated relation in further research which measure the effect of economic diplomacy on macroeconomic aggregates movement. Our study results show a positive link between economic diplomacy and the country’s macroeconomic performances in the long run.