Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The article deals with the problem of future development threats based on the methodology of industry foresight. As an empirical basis for this direction of forecasting, the authors study the mining and metallurgical complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan as a leading factor in the development of the entire national economy. The study is a pilot and focuses on assessing the risks that have formed that could pose a serious threat to the development of the industry, the economy and the country as a whole in the future. Summarizing the world experience in applying the foresight methodology, the authors use it to predict the security and sustainability of development in the medium-term. Using the risk mapping method, the authors identify safety zones in the development trends of the mining and metallurgical industry. The assessment of threats and risks also highlights the leading actors that affect the development of the industry. The main risks for Kazakhstan’s mining and metallurgical enterprises are the lack or shortage of local labor and its low skills. Automation of production processes and digitalization of production are becoming the leading trends in the development of the industry. The problem of improving the quality of workforce training and mastering the necessary skills by specialists is a serious threat to the development of the industry. The authors suggest using foresight tools not only to assess risks, but also to prevent their development into future threats.

Aim of the paper is to outline a research methodology, which would ultimately allow predicting and enhancing competitiveness of less developed economies, which encounter energy security issues. The following theoretical questions are to be discussed. The first, what we mean by sustainable development in countries, which are in different economic development phases, i.e. if emphasis on different facets of sustainability (particularly economic environmental, related to energy consumption patterns) changes as country develops. The second research question raised in the paper deals with energy security issues. Authors tackle the following questions of methodological character: if/what natural consistent patterns of economies development exist; and how to indicate efficient ways of economic restructuring. Answer to the indicated questions would allow formulating policy implications directed towards energetically secure and sustainable development.