Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The article deals with the problem of future development threats based on the methodology of industry foresight. As an empirical basis for this direction of forecasting, the authors study the mining and metallurgical complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan as a leading factor in the development of the entire national economy. The study is a pilot and focuses on assessing the risks that have formed that could pose a serious threat to the development of the industry, the economy and the country as a whole in the future. Summarizing the world experience in applying the foresight methodology, the authors use it to predict the security and sustainability of development in the medium-term. Using the risk mapping method, the authors identify safety zones in the development trends of the mining and metallurgical industry. The assessment of threats and risks also highlights the leading actors that affect the development of the industry. The main risks for Kazakhstan’s mining and metallurgical enterprises are the lack or shortage of local labor and its low skills. Automation of production processes and digitalization of production are becoming the leading trends in the development of the industry. The problem of improving the quality of workforce training and mastering the necessary skills by specialists is a serious threat to the development of the industry. The authors suggest using foresight tools not only to assess risks, but also to prevent their development into future threats.

Mining and metals production sector (MMPS) of Ukraine is one of the basic for the state’s economy. The sector’s output, as well as the gradual increase in production, gives reason for taking a favorable view of its development prospects. Until the mid-90s MMPS of Ukraine key representatives were separate companies that operated as independent legal entities. However, during 1999-2004 the MMPS enterprises integration into the structure of major private transnational financial industrial groups took place. Large-scale consolidation of major enterprises that occurred in order to adapt to market conditions contributed to the emergence of business combination referred to as holding company. In the future, Ukrainian iron and steel companies’ competitiveness in the world market will be largely determined by the scope of their participation in the global consolidation processes. Their future directly depends on the rate of large corporations’ formation and restructuring, including changes in the mechanisms of corporate governance. This is one of the most important ways to improve the efficiency of the national iron and steel industry.