Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

In today’s globalized world characterized by economic independence, which is a measurable component of the level of relations among countries, economic dependence started to affect the direction, content, and intensity of these relations. Thus, the economy has taken the central role of diplomatic activities, while the border between the traditional political and diplomatic activities has become less visible. Purpose of the article: However, to express a numerical value-added for the economy, it is necessary to define the econometric model for calculating the correlation above precisely. It is necessary to define the order of integration of a series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates. The research will try to prove the paper’s primary hypothesis, which states that a series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates activity movements are fractionally integrated. Methods: This will be tested by standard stationarity I(0) and unit root I(1) tests and fractional integration tests. The following tests were used to create tests of fractional integration: Geweke Porter-Hudak (1983), Log Periodogram Regression test (GPH), and Moulines–Soulier (1999) Log Periodogram test (MS) Davidson and Sibbertsen (2009). through the program Time Series Modelling version 4.48. Findings & Value added: The stationarity I(0) and unit root I(1) tests, as well as the fractional integration tests, showed that the series of economic diplomacy movement are commonly fractionally integrated, by which this paper’s hypothesis was proved, namely that the series of economic diplomacy and macroeconomic aggregates activity movements are fractionally integrated. Since the stationarity, I(0) and unit root I(1) tests, as well as the fractional integration tests showed that series are commonly fractionally integrated, along with the simultaneous use of the structural relation and fractionally integrated relation in further research which measure the effect of economic diplomacy on macroeconomic aggregates movement. Our study results show a positive link between economic diplomacy and the country’s macroeconomic performances in the long run.

Romania’s membership of NATO and the European Union has many advantages, but also risks for each of them. Romania continues to strengthen its position and role within NATO and the EU. Romania has shown that it is a loyal and credible partner in its relationship with all international organizations. Romania’s strategic documents with NATO and the EU are well structured and clear. These include mission, vision, strategic objectives and ways of cooperating with each other, as well as the financial, material, human and informational resources needed to implement them. The objective of our research was to identify the main threats, risks and vulnerabilities of Romania as a NATO member state. The analysis has led to the discovery of new ways of reducing risks and threats, as well as solving the major vulnerabilities of Romania. The research is based on the National Defense Strategy, the Romanian Armed Forces Endowment Plan for the period 2019-2028 and other strategic documents underpinning the development of the cooperation between Romania and NATO. Within the analysis process the main threats, risks and vulnerabilities of Romania in relation to NATO were identified. Based on the analysis carried out, several ways of action are proposed through which Romania can strengthen its defense and security capabilities. The results of the research are relevant both theoretically and practically because they show the major changes that Romania has made after entering NATO and the exceptional performances achieved both in the development of the defense and security capability and in fulfilling the commitments assumed by Romania with NATO and other organizations it belongs to.

In 2010s, the mainstream academic debate slowly but surely shifted towards European Union’s internal crisis and the possibility of its disintegration. United Kingdom applying to exit the Union in 2017 is the most recent and arguably the strongest indicator of such possibility. “Brexit” (as this process was dubbed) provides an interesting testing ground for latent European disintegration theories proposed by some political scientists. As the withdrawal negotiations have just started, one can only raise causal arguments for the future (if..., then); therefore this article employs scenario-building methodology recently established in political science with an aim to develop a set of scenarios of possible UK-EU relationship after Brexit. Four driving forces are cross-combined: (1) U.S. involvement in European security matters and bilateral relations with UK, (2) German leadership of the integrationist projects within the EU, (3) activism of the European Commission and the European Court of Justice, and (4) the stability of current minority cabinet in UK under Prime Minister May. The three scenarios that logically follow are: (1) UK as member of a nascent European security and defence union, (2) UK’s return to the EU, and (3) UK as an independent power in an “anglobal” world. Rarely, however, do any scenarios composed by political scientists ever materialize in full and a mix of all three scenarios is most likely to come to pass over the course of the next five years or so.

The author presents a new European security environment after the “Cold War”, including not only the challenges and threats to the international security but also the essential conditions and problems of the European security evolution at the beginning of the 21st century. He shows the dynamic and constant changes taking place within the international environment and those related to the progress of civilization. Moreover, he stresses that current policy and security measures are not capable of effective action against having to appear before the new challenges and threats. Then the problem of unity and identity in the transatlantic relationship is taken. According to the author, in complicating sphere of the international conditions the role of multilateral institutions effectiveness in the international cooperation increases. Due to the increasing importance of interdependence and internationalization, European security challenges are European-wide and even transatlantic. Addressing them requires the preservation of unity that will be possible by strengthening common identity based on shared values and common interests.