Crime has been a common phenomenon for a long time, but its scope and operation are changing, and this is largely dependent on technological progress. We dealt with the development of crime and its negative effects in Poland during the political transformation process that took place after 1989. At that time, law enforcement agencies were not fully able to cope with this practice, and society painfully felt its effects. Many times, innocent people have faced several types of criminal acts. The main reasons that could have influenced the development of crime were social disorganization, lowering of the standard of living, unemployment, as well as visible and constantly deepening social differentiation. The most important task of law enforcement agencies protecting state borders is to provide citizens with basic forms of security so that they feel peaceful in their area of residence. The services should cooperate with each other at every level of securing state borders and protect citizens against any threats. The aim of the article is to analyze the impact of crimes on state security and the role of the Border Guard in securing the state border. The Border Guard plays a key role in this respect, therefore it should have the widest possible range of instruments enabling it to fulfill its duties in this area. This service proves every day that it has an enormous impact on the sense of security of citizens, and counteracting various threats, including crime, is a key element of the security of our country.
The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.
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