Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

In the Middle East, vast oil reserves led to economic modernization and prosperity in the region. However, it is one of the most conflict-prone regions. This paper studies the relationship between military spending, oil and development in Middle Eastern countries using a panel data fixed effect for country-level observations over the period 1986–2016. The relationship between development and conflict will not be uniform throughout the region. Therefore, to test this hypothesis, the study categorized oil exporting countries into three parts that are countries with above average oil export, below average oil export and no oil export. The estimates show a significant reduction in military spending over time and the most declines were observed in the countries where oil export is above average than the Middle East. The results indicate a significant inverse relationship between the military spending with exports and oil rents in overall Middle East analysis and for countries whose average oil export is greater than the Middle East. It is also found that the military burden adversely affects economic growth across all the model specification. However, military spending is declining over time which indicates that there is a reverse causality between development and conflict. It is crucial finding in the context of peace and development literature.

In last two decades, several authors have already proven the existence of positive relationship between generalized trust and macroeconomic growth and this paper queues up providing the evidence based on more recent data. An analysis of sustainability of the macroeconomic growth is also very important for prediction of economic development. However, the main aim of the paper is to analyse how the impact of trust on macroeconomic growth changes upon time, trying to find the answer how fast can changes in trust and other determinants be visible in changes in economic growth of countries. For this purpose, we introduced the dynamic aspect into the “Barro-type” regression growth models used by our predecessors. We can conclude, that trust is the most dynamic growth determinant, with the impact visible after 5 years. The paper also confirmed that the higher the initial level of GDP per capita (in terms of constancy of other variables in the model), the greater the decline in the growth rate. The high level of trust also allows better implementation of effective organizational innovation and knowledge transfer within the organization, since trust is also active through the channel of building the common good.

Our paper tackles the issue of the European energy security and economic growth. Specifically, it evaluates the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in the European Union (EU). Channels along which natural gas is supplied to the EU energy markets yield dependence from the Russian Federation which presents a threat to the European energy security. Our sample includes panel time series data over the period from 1997 to 2011 for a 26 EU countries. Based on neoclassical growth model, we create a multivariate model including gross fixed capital formation and total labor forces of a country as additional explanatory variables. Using panel cointegration tests, we found that there exists a long-run relationship between economic growth, natural gas consumption, labor and capital. In the short-run there is bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth. The causality running from economic growth to natural gas consumption is positive. On the other hand, the causality, which runs from natural gas consumption to economic growth, is negative.