Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.

The mass influx of refugees from Ukraine to Poland, caused by Russia’s aggression on February 24, 2022, has resulted in the application of solutions in the field of refugee law on a massive, unprecedented scale. Previously developed Polish regulations regarding the rules for granting protection to this category of people turned out to be insufficient, and the legislator decided to immediately develop new solutions for the protection of refugees from Ukraine, which were included in the Act of March 12, 2022 on assistance to citizens of Ukraine in relation to an armed conflict on the territory of that country. The provisions of this legal act constitute lex specialis in relation to the Act of June 13, 2003 on granting protection to foreigners in the territory of the Republic of Poland. The article defines a general outline of the so-called refugee law, also from a historical perspective, and includes an analysis of Polish regulations in the field of granting temporary protection to Ukrainian citizens in relation to the European Union standards. The correctness of such solutions was also evaluated.