Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This paper presents a simulation-based decision support approach for artillery target engagement, focusing on the integration of stochastic modelling and reliability-based evaluation into fire planning. Traditional artillery methods rely on deterministic models and consumption norms, which provide limited insight into the variability of fire effectiveness. The proposed approach employs Monte Carlo simulation to model firing accuracy and munition effects, producing probabilistic distributions of target damage. These outputs are evaluated using reliability-based criteria, enabling comparison of firing methods in terms of effectiveness, probability of success, and ammunition consumption. Results demonstrate that optimized firing methods can achieve the required effect (≥30% target damage) with the desired reliability (84%) while significantly reducing ammunition expenditure and exposure time compared to traditional approaches. The study highlights the potential of simulation-based decision support to improve efficiency and decision-making in artillery fire planning.

Special features that options include are the main reason of their growing amounts trading in the financial markets. Options can be used in many imaginative ways to create various attractive investment opportunities. Empirical researches all over the world illustrated that options incorporate an insurance element not available in any other security and because of that they can be used by investors to create return distributions unobtainable with the strategy of allocating funds between fixed income securities and stock portfolios. But investor must understand that one of the main aspects of profitable trading in derivative securities is their proper evaluation and pricing. As the exact valuation of options is quite difficult, the article deals with the theoretical and practical aspects of pricing of options. The purpose of the research is to adopt Monte Carlo simulation method to predict prices of plain vanilla options and to compare them to real option prices and option prices calculated using analytical Black-Scholes formula.