Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The United States of America and the United Kingdom with the assistance of other NATO and non-NATO states initiated an international counter terrorism campaign the War on Terror (also known as the Global War on Terror (GWOT)). However, after more than ten years the War on Terror is still in the active stage. The pivotal issue regarding counter-terrorism actions in Afghanistan, considering how much money and energy spent on them, is whether such actions are effective or not. Dynamic system simulation approach was used to investigate interactions between counter-terrorism strategies used in Afghanistan (in the context of coalition strength) and the effectiveness of these strategies (in the context of terrorist strength). Data form different sources over a ten-year-period was used for analysis (2000–2010). It was found dynamic relation between recruitment rate of terrorist and coalition manpower that depends on time adjustments. However, further research is needed to get more precise results in finding causal loops in counter-terrorism system, thus this study should be evaluated only as a framework in further similar researches.