Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This article addresses the reassessment of security threats to the Czech Republic in light of developments in the security environment since 2015. The aim is to update the evaluation of selected types of threats and to reflect their current characteristics, with particular emphasis on their interdependencies and their capacity to generate cascading effects. To achieve this objective, a semi-quantitative risk assessment model is applied and extended by incorporating a cascading effect coefficient. The results of the risk assessment indicate that cyberattacks, pandemics, floods, and hazardous substance releases constitute unacceptable risks, whereas the remaining assessed threats fall within the category of conditionally acceptable risks. The proposed methodological extension enables a more accurate assessment of interconnected threats. The findings may be applied in risk assessment processes within crisis management.

The regional and local impacts of the restrictive measures taken to mitigate the covid-19 crisis are highly heterogeneous and have significant consequences for the efficiency of society’s functioning, the emergency management of the state administration, and the political responses of the governing parties. The paper deals with the assessment of threats and risks resulting from the restrictive measures of the government as part of the solution to the pandemic crisis situation in the Czech Republic (CR). The aim of the authors is to identify the most serious threats and risks that can affect the democracy and internal security of the CR during a pandemic and to propose recommendations for their mitigation. To assess the defined threats and risks, a point semi-quantitative method was used, working with values for probability, impact and the opinion of evaluators, called the PCE method (Probability, Consequences, Evaluator). Out of the twenty assessed threats, a group of evaluators identified the eight most serious ones, using the PCE method.