Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This paper analyzes one-way attack UAV saturation and air defense adaptation using open-source attack data recorded by Shahed-136/131 UAVs in Ukraine. Descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, and non-parametric tests indicate rapid growth in UAV volume, partial saturation effects, and a clear distinction between kinetic destruction and broader neutralization. The study contributes a measurable counter-UAS assessment model that links attack volume, defensive performance, and small-state air defense planning.