Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

Growing maritime activity, climate driven changes, and geopolitical competition are increasing the strategic importance of the Arctic and raising new security concerns for NATO. This study examines how defence and security professionals in Lithuania perceive Arctic geopolitical risks, NATO maritime preparedness, regional threats, and future security scenarios. A quantitative survey was conducted using a five point Likert scale. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation, the Kruskal Wallis test, and K-Means cluster analysis. Three distinct respondent opinion clusters were identified: Manageable Situation, Lowest Perceived Threat, and Growing Threat. The results showed that stronger perceptions of geopolitical competition were associated with higher perceived escalation risk. Perceived Russian threat was positively associated with support for increased NATO investment in long term Arctic capabilities. In contrast, assessments of NATO preparedness and respondents' professional experience were not significantly associated with perceived escalation risk. The findings indicate that support for stronger NATO engagement in the Arctic is mainly shaped by perceptions of specific security threats rather than general assessments of NATO capabilities. The study supports continued attention to long term maritime capability development, regional cooperation, and changing Arctic security conditions.