Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This paper verifies mechanized battalion defensive capabilities using constructive simulation. The methodology employs the MASA SWORD environment with Monte Carlo replications, randomized A/B testing of Courses of Action, and standardized metrics (MoE, MoP, MoFP, MoS). The results show that ISR quality and C2 latency are decisive for defensive effectiveness, while obstacle system design and logistical throughput significantly influence enemy tempo and operational endurance. The findings support capability assessment, operational planning, and training design. The paper’s value lies in a reproducible, metrics-based framework for battalion-level capability verification.

The paper presents a hybrid methodological framework for resolving military capability gaps by integrating Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and constructive simulation. The purpose is to enhance defense planning transparency and objectivity. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert-driven criteria weights were established, focusing on force protection and operational effectiveness. These were validated via 200 stochastic simulation cycles in MASA SWORD, comparing conventional reconnaissance against UAV-integrated structures. Findings indicate that UAV integration (OCE = 0.7882) provides a 50.6% reduction in friendly fatalities compared to traditional methods (OCE = 0.6945). The framework offers a scalable, auditable tool for evidence-based strategic procurement.