Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

Growing maritime activity, climate driven changes, and geopolitical competition are increasing the strategic importance of the Arctic and raising new security concerns for NATO. This study examines how defence and security professionals in Lithuania perceive Arctic geopolitical risks, NATO maritime preparedness, regional threats, and future security scenarios. A quantitative survey was conducted using a five point Likert scale. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation, the Kruskal Wallis test, and K-Means cluster analysis. Three distinct respondent opinion clusters were identified: Manageable Situation, Lowest Perceived Threat, and Growing Threat. The results showed that stronger perceptions of geopolitical competition were associated with higher perceived escalation risk. Perceived Russian threat was positively associated with support for increased NATO investment in long term Arctic capabilities. In contrast, assessments of NATO preparedness and respondents' professional experience were not significantly associated with perceived escalation risk. The findings indicate that support for stronger NATO engagement in the Arctic is mainly shaped by perceptions of specific security threats rather than general assessments of NATO capabilities. The study supports continued attention to long term maritime capability development, regional cooperation, and changing Arctic security conditions.

This paper explores the potentialities and constraints of building the European Union's strategic autonomy in a new geopolitical era marked by the rivalry between the United States and China, the weakening of the multilateral order, and the consequences of the war in Ukraine. The authors primarily focus on the political, economic, and technological dimensions of autonomy, utilising relevant scientific methods within an interdisciplinary research framework, primarily the analytical-synthetic method, content and comparative analysis, as well as the scenario approach. The findings indicate that the EU is capable of progressively reducing its dependency through the diversification of resources, investments in development, research, and innovation, and the strengthening of digital and technological sovereignty. Simultaneously, however, the Union faces serious limitations, the fiscal constraints of the Member States, the fragmentation of its foreign and security policy, and a persistent reliance on the United States in the area of defence. The EU’s future position will therefore hinge on its ability to consolidate its economic and technological potential and transform it into a unified political will and a credible geopolitical power.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the legal definition, organizational status, and forms of deployment of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic within the crisis management system and during declared states of emergency. Methodologically, the paper is based on a normative analysis of applicable legislation, a content analysis of relevant academic sources, and a synthesis of findings derived from practical implementation experience. The results identify persistent ambiguities in competences and limitations of the legal framework governing the domestic deployment of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic, particularly in the areas of command, coordination, and the interpretation of assistance-related tasks. The paper therefore contributes to the professional debate on the need for doctrinal and normative anchoring of civil-military cooperation under the conditions of the Slovak Republic. The findings indicate the need to refine the legal framework in order to increase the effectiveness of crisis management and civil-military cooperation. The main contribution of the paper lies in a generalizable and systematic linkage between the normative and operational dimensions of the deployment and functioning of the armed forces within the state crisis management system.

Disinformation is becoming one of the most serious security challenges for the European Union, especially in the context of the deteriorating geopolitical situation. In recent years, disinformation has evolved from a marginal phenomenon to a systematically used tool of influence and manipulation, which disrupts the functioning of democratic societies, undermines trust in democratic values, principles and institutions and destabilizes social cohesion. Both state and non-state actors use disinformation to achieve their political, ideological, security and economic goals without direct military confrontation. The European Union is responding to these threats with comprehensive political, legislative and strategic measures, including the European Democracy Action Plan, the Digital Services Act and the Strategic Compass for Security and Defence, among others. Strengthening societal resilience through the development of media and digital literacy, critical thinking and pluralistic public discourse also plays a key role. The analysis shows that an effective and efficient fight against disinformation necessarily requires a coordinated and broad-spectrum response that respects democratic principles and values, but at the same time minimizes the space for abuse of the information environment.

The objective of this study is to empirically assess the impact of changes in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and employment on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) amid growing geopolitical tensions. The research methodology is based on an ARDL model with short-run dynamics and an error correction term (ECM), with the analysis grounded in quarterly data spanning a 20-year period. The empirical results reveal that employment growth has a strong, immediate positive impact on GDP, whereas the specific impact of China’s TUI on U.S. economic growth manifests only with a three-quarter lag and is minimal in the short term. It was also found that a positive ECM coefficient signals atypical long-term divergence in the macroeconomic system in response to Chinese capital flows. The novelty of the study is grounded in a 20-year time series analysis, which empirically demonstrates that the impact of Chinese foreign capital on the U.S. economy requires a longer adjustment period, while labor market expansion directly stimulates GDP growth in the short term.

This paper examines Stability policing as a key tool for strengthening national defense in contemporary hybrid threat environments. Using a qualitative approach that combines a literature review, comparative analysis, and a case study of Ukraine, it analyzes its role across the conflict spectrum. The findings show that Stability policing bridges the gap between military operations and law enforcement, enhances resilience, and enables accountability through battlefield evidence collection. The study highlights its strategic importance for countering hybrid threats and preventing security vacuums. It contributes by conceptualizing Stability Policing as a proactive and integral component of national defense systems.

The changing security environment in Eastern Europe has increased the strategic importance of road infrastructure for national resilience, civilian protection, and allied military mobility. Lithuania occupies a critical position on NATO's north eastern flank, where a limited number of strategic road corridors simultaneously support domestic mobility, freight transport, civilian evacuation, and allied reinforcement. This study assesses the resilience of Lithuania's national road network under four military threat scenarios: blockade of the Suwałki Corridor and attacks from Kaliningrad Oblast, Belarusian territory, and the Latvian direction. The methodological framework combines structured evidence synthesis from public transport and infrastructure data, strategic and policy documents, and scientific literature with spatial road network assessment, scenario analysis, and multicriteria vulnerability scoring. The Scenario Severity Index identified the Belarusian scenario as the most severe, scoring 24 of 25 points and reaching 96 percent. The Suwałki Corridor and Kaliningrad scenarios each reached 80 percent, while the Latvian direction scenario reached 64 percent. The analysis identified A1, A5, the Vilnius to Kaunas axis, the Kaunas transport node, and strategic connections with Poland and Latvia as the most critical network elements. The findings show that simultaneous civilian evacuation and military movements may constrain road functionality even without direct infrastructure loss. Nationally coordinated corridor based resilience management and unified civil military traffic coordination are therefore required. The results also provide a structured vulnerability evidence base for the future development of the National Transport Mobilization Index.

This article examines the political responses of NATO member states to the 2025 Hague Pledge, which combines a 3.5% core defence target with a 1.5% resilience component. Based on structured qualitative coding of official statements, government documents, and media reports, it develops the Hague Negotiation Score (HNS) for 25 member states. The findings show that formal consensus masks significant differences: strong support is concentrated among allies on the eastern flank and the United Kingdom, while others accept, reinterpret, postpone, or resist this commitment. The article adds an ex-ante perspective to debates on burden-sharing within NATO.

This paper examines how digital media discourse influences national security and institutional trust using UK-related data (39,760 mentions; reach 255.3 million) collected between November 2025 and April 2026. Applying AI-assisted media analytics, it identifies key risk patterns, including the dominance of negative sentiment, platform-driven amplification, and the transnational circulation of narratives. The findings show how these dynamics generate structural vulnerabilities for democratic institutions and complicate strategic communication. The study proposes a practical analytical framework for monitoring influence operations, enabling earlier detection of coordinated campaigns and supporting faster, evidence-based policy responses in complex digital information environments today.

The full-scale war against Ukraine has brought the issue of systemic environmental destruction to the forefront as a tool of modern armed conflict and has given new weight to the concept of ecocide in the context of national and international security. Large-scale damage to ecosystems, industrial facilities, water resources, energy and agricultural infrastructure demonstrates that environmental damage in wartime is not accidental, but structural in nature and causes long-term socio-economic and security consequences. The article considers ecocide as a multidimensional threat that affects environmental sustainability, public health, economic stability and regional security. The study analyzes the regulatory and institutional status of ecocide at the national and international levels. Special attention is paid to the criminalization of ecocide in Ukraine, the practices of recording and investigating environmental crimes in the context of military operations, as well as the problems of international criminal-legal qualification of large-scale environmental damage. The role of the UN system structure and international financial mechanisms in shaping the institutional response, supporting green reconstruction and restoring environmental sustainability is separately considered. The thesis is substantiated about the need to institutionalize ecocide as an element of the global safe architecture and strengthen international mechanisms of responsibility for military environmental damage.