Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

This article examines the political responses of NATO member states to the 2025 Hague Pledge, which combines a 3.5% core defence target with a 1.5% resilience component. Based on structured qualitative coding of official statements, government documents, and media reports, it develops the Hague Negotiation Score (HNS) for 25 member states. The findings show that formal consensus masks significant differences: strong support is concentrated among allies on the eastern flank and the United Kingdom, while others accept, reinterpret, postpone, or resist this commitment. The article adds an ex-ante perspective to debates on burden-sharing within NATO.