Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

Growing maritime activity, climate driven changes, and geopolitical competition are increasing the strategic importance of the Arctic and raising new security concerns for NATO. This study examines how defence and security professionals in Lithuania perceive Arctic geopolitical risks, NATO maritime preparedness, regional threats, and future security scenarios. A quantitative survey was conducted using a five point Likert scale. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation, the Kruskal Wallis test, and K-Means cluster analysis. Three distinct respondent opinion clusters were identified: Manageable Situation, Lowest Perceived Threat, and Growing Threat. The results showed that stronger perceptions of geopolitical competition were associated with higher perceived escalation risk. Perceived Russian threat was positively associated with support for increased NATO investment in long term Arctic capabilities. In contrast, assessments of NATO preparedness and respondents' professional experience were not significantly associated with perceived escalation risk. The findings indicate that support for stronger NATO engagement in the Arctic is mainly shaped by perceptions of specific security threats rather than general assessments of NATO capabilities. The study supports continued attention to long term maritime capability development, regional cooperation, and changing Arctic security conditions.

Sustaining professional military service is a critical challenge for small NATO member states facing prolonged security pressures and demographic constraints. This study examines the determinants of long‑term professional military service sustainability in the Lithuanian Armed Forces, situating personnel retention within a broader defense sustainability and resilience framework. Using a quantitative research design, data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 207 professional military service soldiers serving in the Infantry Battalion. Hierarchical regression analysis was employed to assess the incremental contribution of structural, organizational, attitudinal, and personal factors to soldiers’ intention to remain in long‑term service. The results indicate that working environment quality provides an essential structural foundation for retention, while professional satisfaction significantly enhances commitment to continued service. Most notably, personal values and family influence emerged as the strongest predictor of long‑term retention intentions, substantially increasing the explanatory power of the model. Organizational and career‑related factors showed indirect effects when more proximal determinants were considered. The findings suggest that sustainable professional military service depends not only on favourable service conditions and organizational practices but, above all, on value alignment and family support. These results underscore the importance of integrating social sustainability considerations into defence human resource policies to strengthen long‑term force resilience.