Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

Understanding how soil systems respond to atmospheric forcing is critical not only for environmental science but also for defence operations requiring accurate terrain assessment. This study quantifies depth‑dependent and delayed soil responses to meteorological drivers using lag‑correlation analysis across six operational military monitoring stations (2022–2024). The results demonstrate that soil–atmosphere coupling exhibits strong station‑specific variability, with response times ranging from hours to several weeks depending on soil type and depth.

This paper presents a simulation-based decision support approach for artillery target engagement, focusing on the integration of stochastic modelling and reliability-based evaluation into fire planning. Traditional artillery methods rely on deterministic models and consumption norms, which provide limited insight into the variability of fire effectiveness. The proposed approach employs Monte Carlo simulation to model firing accuracy and munition effects, producing probabilistic distributions of target damage. These outputs are evaluated using reliability-based criteria, enabling comparison of firing methods in terms of effectiveness, probability of success, and ammunition consumption. Results demonstrate that optimized firing methods can achieve the required effect (≥30% target damage) with the desired reliability (84%) while significantly reducing ammunition expenditure and exposure time compared to traditional approaches. The study highlights the potential of simulation-based decision support to improve efficiency and decision-making in artillery fire planning.

The paper presents a hybrid methodological framework for resolving military capability gaps by integrating Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and constructive simulation. The purpose is to enhance defense planning transparency and objectivity. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert-driven criteria weights were established, focusing on force protection and operational effectiveness. These were validated via 200 stochastic simulation cycles in MASA SWORD, comparing conventional reconnaissance against UAV-integrated structures. Findings indicate that UAV integration (OCE = 0.7882) provides a 50.6% reduction in friendly fatalities compared to traditional methods (OCE = 0.6945). The framework offers a scalable, auditable tool for evidence-based strategic procurement.