Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

This study examines the reliability of financial reporting in the Russian defence industry amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions. Using Benford’s Law, the authors analyse accounting data (Total Assets, Turnover, and Profit/Loss) from selected strategic sectors (NACE 2540, 3030, and 3040) between 2015 and 2024. The results reveal a significant and growing deviation from the theoretical distribution of leading digits, particularly following the 2022 invasion. Specific anomalies—such as the anomalous excess of the digit 1 in Total Assets and the concentration of digits 2 and 9 in Profit/Loss—point to systematic asset padding, creative margin management, and the use of accounting as a tool for strategic disinformation. The analysis suggests that while Russian authorities attempt to maintain a facade of economic stability through “controlled fiction”, statistical testing uncovers underlying institutional stress, asset degradation, and the shift towards a closed-loop war economy. The study concludes that Benford’s Law is a vital tool for detecting operational paralysis and information manipulation when primary data are classified or unreliable.