Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

This paper develops a multiplicative model of logistic effectiveness for a Joint Logistic Support Group and explicitly links logistics performance to the fighting power construct used in doctrine. It further expands the intelligence support factor as a composite index that captures both the availability and quality of relevant data, information, and intelligence inputs and the operational performance of intelligence processing that supports the commander’s decision-making. The model also accounts for information-volume effects, recognising that both insufficient and excessive reporting can reduce utility, and it distinguishes between enduring, organic intelligence capability (as part of the physical component of fighting power) and the day-to-day process performance of intelligence processing (as part of the intelligence support factor). Finally, the paper places the model in the context of a continuously changing operating environment, including hybrid threats that can disrupt logistic support and reduce achievable effectiveness. The paper provides definitions and equations, proposes measurable indicators, demonstrates the calculations with a numerical illustration, outlines a calibration approach, and offers practical recommendations for application beyond command-and-control elements at the Joint Logistic Support Group level.