Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

The paper examines the economic determinants of military modernisation within the Central Northern European Military Mobility Area (CNE MMA) from 2010 to 2024. Using correlation analysis and linear models for panel data, the paper investigates the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and expenditures on military equipment and infrastructure across eight member states. Furthermore, the article defines the roles of individual states within the military mobility capability across European territory. A significant contribution of this work, which distinguishes it from existing literature in the field, is the assessment of the specific relationship between economic growth and defence infrastructure investments. While most research focuses on aggregate military spending, this study isolates infrastructure investment as a critical enabler of strategic mobility. The findings reveal a significant infrastructure decoupling in major powers like Germany and Poland, where equipment procurement crowds out infrastructure investment despite rising budgets. Conversely, frontline state like Lithuania demonstrates synchronized spending. The study concludes that current prioritisation of equipment over infrastructure creates strategic risks for rapid force deployment. The primary contribution lies in the disaggregated analysis of dual-use infrastructure within the CNE MMA framework, providing actionable insights for balancing fiscal allocation to ensure logistical resilience in contemporary geopolitical conditions.