Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

This article discusses NATO's evolution and prospects of its future developments. The article addresses internal tensions and dilemmas the Alliance's members may have to confront and overcome. The author contends that the process of preparation of the new strategic concept may have signaled a certain ideational crisis of NATO and its search for a new identity. NATO's "transformation" increasingly resembles an aimless process rather than a clear and to all allies unanimously acceptable raison d'etre. Robert Cooper's thesis of the international system consisting of pre-modern, modern and post-modern states is applied to explain NATO's problem of the strategic dissonance. Postmodern societies of the allies are increasingly less inclined to support military adventures beyond NATO's territory. NATO's operations often take place in pre-modern, anarchical environment of failed or failing states. Such missions require advanced technologies and a comprehensive, integrated civil-military approach. Many countries outside Europe and North America are 20th century-type modern nation-states, often undemocratic, like China and Russia. The latter country remains an important factor defining Alliance's identity within and in the international system. NATO, which seeks to become a progressive, forward looking Alliance of the 21st century, struggles to develop a dialogue with Russia on the most pertinent security problems in the post-sovereign and post-national European space. The new strategic concept will have to encompass all these apparently irreconcilable, "dissonant" elements. NATO no longer is a solely regional military block nor is it becoming a global political forum, which would be addressing all the most important international security problems. NATO is preparing to undertake both "most likely" operations, such as in Afghanistan and the most demanding, article 5 operations. It is possible that by focusing on light, expeditionary forces to be used in wars against asymmetrical, weak enemies the ability of the allies to wage conventional wars against near-peers will degrade. Russian war on Georgia has recently reminded that such wars in Europe are still likely. Lithuania's experience of NATO membership is mixed: some expectations were fulfilled, and some - not, but Lithuania has come a long way in seeking to become a more mature ally.