Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

The method of scenario building is used in this article to identify and examine the eventual directions of NATO transformation. This article analyzes the main driving forces of the Alliance, as well as the parameters which define the transformation of NATO. On the basis of the theoretical scenario building model, which is designed in this article, four alternative scenarios of NATO are constructed: (a) NATO as a global mechanism for crisis management; (b) NATO as a fortress of collective defence; (c) NATO as a paralyzed political forum; (d) NATO as a multifunctional security structure. The article also aims at answering the question, under which scenario the transformation of the Alliance is currently proceeding. Finally, the practical applicability of the scenario building method in the field of Lithuanian foreign policy is evaluated.