Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

This article explores the key factors that could lead to a potential spillover of the conflict from Ukraine into Moldova. It also proposes strategies for Moldova to mitigate this risk and safeguard its stability against Russian aggression. By utilizing a mixed methods approach that combines qualitative insights from semi-structured interviews and quantitative analysis of institutional indices, migration and demographic data, also defense budget figures, the article provides a comprehensive evaluation to address the research question. The theoretical framework is based on the cross-border conflict theory, specifically employing the concept of securitization to frame Moldova’s response to security challenges. While the article does not predict outcomes, it highlights Moldova’s options to mitigate vulnerabilities and collaboratively enhance stability. Prioritizing the strengthening of the national security framework and proactive diplomatic initiatives emerges as essential.