Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

This article explores the key factors that could lead to a potential spillover of the conflict from Ukraine into Moldova. It also proposes strategies for Moldova to mitigate this risk and safeguard its stability against Russian aggression. By utilizing a mixed methods approach that combines qualitative insights from semi-structured interviews and quantitative analysis of institutional indices, migration and demographic data, also defense budget figures, the article provides a comprehensive evaluation to address the research question. The theoretical framework is based on the cross-border conflict theory, specifically employing the concept of securitization to frame Moldova’s response to security challenges. While the article does not predict outcomes, it highlights Moldova’s options to mitigate vulnerabilities and collaboratively enhance stability. Prioritizing the strengthening of the national security framework and proactive diplomatic initiatives emerges as essential.

This article analyses the energy dimension of relationships which have been developed between the ‘Eastern Partnership’ (EaP) partner countries within the context of European security. The essence of the EaP and the main priorities of the initiative’s energy platform will be determined. The peculiarities of their relations with the European Union and the Russian federation will be analysed. One discovery which has been made is the fact that the involvement of the addressee countries within the EaP grants them significant advantages in the implementation of the overall energy policy, and the EU is understood by them as being a guarantor of energy security. Emphasis is placed on the fact that Russia seeks to establish the fullest possible levels of control over energy supplies which are sent to Europe, and to the EU, and indeed even to reduce the dependence of the EaP partner countries on energy imports from Russia. Something which became obvious was the fact that while Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine were forming closer ties with the EU, Azerbaijan and Belarus on the contrary continued (and continue) to adhere to the authoritarian status quo. From this it can be concluded that the EaP partner countries face new challenges and threats, both in terms of domestic and foreign policy, which will determine the transformation of energy relations, in particular within the dimension of security.