Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

War rarely announces itself politely; instead, it abruptly restructures systems that once appeared routine into matters of existential urgency. Nowhere is this transformation more evident than in Ukraine’s railway network. Since the full-scale invasion of February 24, 2022, Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) has evolved from a largely invisible economic backbone into a central artery of national survival. This article examines how the railway system absorbed simultaneous shocks, including military attacks, infrastructural collapse, and a minus 44.3% contraction in the transport sector while maintaining operational continuity under extreme wartime pressure. Drawing upon statistical data, policy documents, and theoretical insights from resilience and vulnerability research, the analysis situates railway infrastructure at the intersection of logistics, geopolitics, and humanitarian response. The study argues that Ukraine’s railway system represents not merely a resilient infrastructure but a strategically transformative mechanism that catalyzed a structural shift in international freight flows, enabling rail to partially replace maritime routes that previously dominated export logistics. The article contributes to transport resilience scholarship by illustrating how large-scale conflict accelerates adaptation cycles, strengthens institutional learning, and redefines the operational role of railway systems in contested environments.

This paper develops a multiplicative model of logistic effectiveness for a Joint Logistic Support Group and explicitly links logistics performance to the fighting power construct used in doctrine. It further expands the intelligence support factor as a composite index that captures both the availability and quality of relevant data, information, and intelligence inputs and the operational performance of intelligence processing that supports the commander’s decision-making. The model also accounts for information-volume effects, recognising that both insufficient and excessive reporting can reduce utility, and it distinguishes between enduring, organic intelligence capability (as part of the physical component of fighting power) and the day-to-day process performance of intelligence processing (as part of the intelligence support factor). Finally, the paper places the model in the context of a continuously changing operating environment, including hybrid threats that can disrupt logistic support and reduce achievable effectiveness. The paper provides definitions and equations, proposes measurable indicators, demonstrates the calculations with a numerical illustration, outlines a calibration approach, and offers practical recommendations for application beyond command-and-control elements at the Joint Logistic Support Group level.