Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of macroeconomic indicators on tourism revenue from five states of ASEAN region. To address this objective secondary data is collected over last 18 years from 2001-2017 with annual observations. Macroeconomic indicators include inflation, oil prices, industrial growth, exchange rate stock market index, and gross domestic product over time. Method of the study is based on regression OLS estimation with robust standard errors. Empirical findings indicates that key determinants for the change in tourism revenue in selected countries are exchange rate, stock market index, inflation and industrial growth. However, impact of GDP on tourism revenue is also significant for Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. Study findings can be very much beneficial for present decision-making regarding growth in tourism industry in ASEAN region. Limitations of the study includes less than 20 years of time duration, ignoring the microeconomic indicators of tourism revenue and cross-sectional analysis. Future studies can address these limitations which better understanding and practical implications.

For establishing the best monetary policy it is essential to know if in practice monetary variables determine gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices. Price stability contributes to the formation of stable environment for the development of commercially sustainable activities and expresses the responsibility of central banks for sustainable industrial development. It contributes to maximizing the GDP, employment, stable interest rates and sustainable economic development which have consequences for households’ welfare as well as enterprises’ value maximization. For a set of more monetary variables, we identified that in Romania money aggregates M2 and M3 as well as internal credit were strongly correlated with GDP over the time period 1995:Q1-2015:Q4, while in Slovakia only M2 and M3 were strongly correlated with GDP in the same time period. Contrary to expectations, according to a Bayesian linear regression, the internal credit changes had a negative impact on economic growth on the overall period. This conclusion is consistent with other empirical studies. This paper’s analysis discovered that the aforementioned negative correlation is due to the crisis period, because the regime-switching Bayesian model indicated that only in times of economic contraction changes in internal credit negatively affected economic growth.

As an alternative to the conventional GDP, a new “progressive” GDP termed as the “Holistic Progress Index” or the HPI has been proposed; and an original approach to its quantitative evaluation has been presented. The HPI integrates social, economic, ecological and political aspects of human progress. The rationale of HPI and its evaluation methodology are presented. As proposed, the HPI is based on three major parameters i.e. the Net GDP per capita, Socio-Ecological Progress Index and Socio-Political Progress Index representing Peaceful Development, Sustainability and Human Freedom respectively. The factors involved in the quantitative evaluation of HPI are GDP, military expenditure, health, education, carbon emission, poverty reduction, leisure, population growth, crime and human freedom. Hence the proposed HPI is much more comprehensive than the conventional GDP. Future actions / projects required to utilize the concept of HPI are also proposed and discussed. It is concluded that a pursuit of the growth in HPI (rather than a growth in GDP alone) will lead to Peaceful and Sustainable Development without curtailing Human Freedom.