Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

Recent years have been very turbulent for the small NATO member states located near the Russian border. Concerns about the credibility of collective deterrence and overall solidarity have been growing since the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency. For the Baltic states bordering Russia, the potential withdrawal of United States military support from Europe, as well as the insufficient levels of stockpiles and defense readiness among European states, have created a significant erosion of security. Baltic needs and expectations regarding European NATO powers could be better articulated and more focused once the United States’ levels of commitment and solidarity are clarified. The primary questions, however, center on how much of the Baltic states’ future survival is in their own hands and how much depends primarily on global powers with their own ambitions and preferences in the region. New affordable and acceptable solutions need to be found quickly, collectively, and at the intra-state level. Ankara’s NATO meeting in 2026 has brought some positive energy to Baltic security and deterrence options during Trump’s second presidency. Long-expected contributions from NATO to Baltic defense and security have not only been debated but also promised.