Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

The purpose of this article is to discuss the causes of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and find out how changes in the political regime have influenced the course of Kiev's foreign policy. The first part of the article tries to clarify what internal and external factors determined the transformation of the political regime at the end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005. The answer to the question why the Orange Revolution in Ukraine took place is provided. It is based on the assumption that the transformation of the political regime was influenced not only by internal circumstances (first of all a crisis of the oligarchic political regime) but also by external ones. The West and Russia treat Ukraine as a strategically important state; therefore, it is becoming a special object of competition for the influence between Western institutions and the East. It should be pointed out that such overlapping of interests is a dynamic process: it can determine the tendencies of stability and cooperation between the West and the East or confliction. The author comes to the conclusion that in the near perspective future, Ukraine might become a hotbed of tension and conflicts between Russia and the West (primarily the USA). The second part of the article answers the question how the political crisis of September 2005, the splitting of Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko's alliance, the gas conflict of Russia and Ukraine can affect tendencies of foreign policy of the country before the Rada elections in March 2006. The article points out that in spite of a complicated social and economic situation and political crises, Kiev attempted to adhere to a pro-Western course of foreign policy. Cooperation of Ukraine with NATO and Kiev's regional policy experienced particular impetus. Such tendencies in foreign policy of Ukraine are actively supported by the USA which is hoping to establish, in the western part of the CIS, a counterbalance for Russia's ambitions to restore its influence there. On the other hand, such Kiev's activity makes relations with Moscow even more strained. The author of the article claims that further cooperation of Ukraine and Western institutions will depend on the Rada elections in March 2006.