Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

Crime has been a common phenomenon for a long time, but its scope and operation are changing, and this is largely dependent on technological progress. We dealt with the development of crime and its negative effects in Poland during the political transformation process that took place after 1989. At that time, law enforcement agencies were not fully able to cope with this practice, and society painfully felt its effects. Many times, innocent people have faced several types of criminal acts. The main reasons that could have influenced the development of crime were social disorganization, lowering of the standard of living, unemployment, as well as visible and constantly deepening social differentiation. The most important task of law enforcement agencies protecting state borders is to provide citizens with basic forms of security so that they feel peaceful in their area of residence. The services should cooperate with each other at every level of securing state borders and protect citizens against any threats. The aim of the article is to analyze the impact of crimes on state security and the role of the Border Guard in securing the state border. The Border Guard plays a key role in this respect, therefore it should have the widest possible range of instruments enabling it to fulfill its duties in this area. This service proves every day that it has an enormous impact on the sense of security of citizens, and counteracting various threats, including crime, is a key element of the security of our country.

The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.

The mass influx of refugees from Ukraine to Poland, caused by Russia’s aggression on February 24, 2022, has resulted in the application of solutions in the field of refugee law on a massive, unprecedented scale. Previously developed Polish regulations regarding the rules for granting protection to this category of people turned out to be insufficient, and the legislator decided to immediately develop new solutions for the protection of refugees from Ukraine, which were included in the Act of March 12, 2022 on assistance to citizens of Ukraine in relation to an armed conflict on the territory of that country. The provisions of this legal act constitute lex specialis in relation to the Act of June 13, 2003 on granting protection to foreigners in the territory of the Republic of Poland. The article defines a general outline of the so-called refugee law, also from a historical perspective, and includes an analysis of Polish regulations in the field of granting temporary protection to Ukrainian citizens in relation to the European Union standards. The correctness of such solutions was also evaluated.

A multidimensional analysis of one of main macroeconomic indicators, specifically, unemployment, in the United States was conducted and presented in the article. The research covered several groups of dependent variables, such as: the number of unemployed people in total in the United States monthly, along with unemployment rates, CPI indices, and unemployment in respective US states. The evaluation of the conducted research is that from January 2020 to October 2023 there had been a visible decrease in unemployment rates, and their level is similar to the values recorded from January 2018 to January 2020, which clearly proves that the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been averted. The analysis method was used in the study, i.e. distribution of variables into prime factors and comparison dynamically in order to detect the regularities occurring in them.

War is theoretically subject to the laws of armed conflict but, in practice, it brings in its wake war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and the crime of aggression. The parties to an armed conflict are unable and/or unwilling to hold the perpetrators of these crimes (oftentimes their own citizens) to account. Part of the rationale for establishment of the International Criminal Court was to offer a way forward in this regard. Yet the suspected war criminal – even the political leader of the aggressor state – must be apprehended and brought to The Hague so that he may face the Court. This is no easy task, thwarted by a variety of formal, factual, and political obstacles; all too often, the idea of a supranational justice system presided over by the International Criminal Court proves illusory, if not fictitious. In this article, these points are discussed in reference to the crimes being committed against the Ukrainian population by the Russian aggressors.

The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in Europe between 2019-2022 in terms of economic security. Data for the study was taken from Eurostat and categorized line and bar graphs were used. The conducted research shows that in 2021, in each of the considered European countries, an average of 138% of the number of passengers of 2020 were transported by air. In 2022, an increase to 230% of the number of passengers of 2021 was observed. The forecasting of the number of passengers conducted by air transport for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration was made. A naive method was used for the forecasting. In 2023, the largest number of passengers will be transported in Spain, followed by Germany in the second place and France as third. The sum of the forecast of the number of passengers transported for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration will equal 1 401 839 218 people and will be higher than in 2022 by 296 222 604 people.

The study attempts to forecast the total costs of a company in Poland. The first stage of the research was analyzing and evaluating the time series of total costs. It detected: trends, seasonality and a random factor. This became a premise for the application of two methods for forecasting: Holt-Winters’ multiplicative and additive. The research shows that the Holt-Winters’ multiplicative model proved to be better in forecasting total costs in the research subject. The forecasted total costs from July to December 2022 will reach PLN 45 395 685, while from January to December 2023, their value will amount to PLN 85 948 927.

The research includes a multidimensional comparative analysis of electricity prices in 28 European countries for non-household consumers. The highest energy prices in the first half of 2022 were also ranked in the respective analyzed countries. Increases in electricity prices for non-household consumers were examined in terms of percentage and value from the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2022 and the increases were ranked. Their leader in terms of percentage and value was Greece with the result of 353,50% which constitutes EUR 0,288 of the price increase per 1 KWh in the considered time period. A multiple regression model was also built and showed that the time series of natural gas price quotations had an impact on the increase in electricity prices for non-household consumers.

The study comprises a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by rail in twelve European countries between 2019-2021; the considered data were grouped and analyzed. The dynamics indices with a constant base were used in the study. The aim of the article was a comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by rail in the European countries under consideration between 2019-2021. The result of the research is the observation of an increase in the number of passengers transported by rail in twelve European countries in 2021 compared to 2020 by 374 965 people. It was visible in nine out of the twelve countries considered. The largest one was observed in France, with around 170 544 passengers. Considering the percentage increase between 2020 and 2021 in respective countries in rail passenger transport, it was observed that the most significant increase was in Italy, which amounted to 25,61%.

The study presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of two dependent variables: the number of passengers transported by air in 28 European countries and the price of one barrel of crude oil in dollars. The conducted analysis shows that in the historical data concerning the identical periods (months) in both tested series, dependencies can be found. This allowed for the construction of a zero-one multiple regression model in order to confirm the impact of the number of passengers travelling by air on the price of one barrel of crude oil and describe this phenomenon with an analytical function.