Forecasting of monetary policy tools, including reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland, in order to optimise economic decisions made by business entities operating on this market, becomes a basic canon of knowledge, in order to minimise a risk of undertaken economic operations – is currently the area of our investigation. The article raises a problem of forecasting the reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland on the basis of initial information received from the National Bank of Poland. The studies started with analysis and evaluation of time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland. Then the analysed series were divided into two parts. Based on obtained results, the researchers performed forecasting of the first part of separated time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland with the use of different methods. The above mentioned time series consists of 132 elements. Later on, the researches chose the best forecasting method and that was the basis for initial time series forecasting of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland in mil PLN in retrospective terms during 2010-2021 for the next 2021-2022 years.
The study includes an analysis of the functioning of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of financial security management of these entities. The article covers the identification of threats in the area of finances of the discussed enterprises that arose during the pandemic, as well as the assessment and approach to financial risk management in these entities. As a result, the key categories of threats to the financial security of enterprises, arising during the COVID-19 pandemic, were presented, as well as the assessment of the effectiveness of state services responsible for ensuring financial security. The study focuses on multidimensional data analysis in terms of their grouping and unraveling in terms of comparing the considered variables in terms of dynamics. Initial studies were performed by comparing several variables, and the data were analyzed not only during the COVID-19 pandemic, but also in the pre-pandemic period in terms of observing their fluctuations in dynamic terms, and the relationships between them were also examined.