Forecasting of monetary policy tools, including reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland, in order to optimise economic decisions made by business entities operating on this market, becomes a basic canon of knowledge, in order to minimise a risk of undertaken economic operations – is currently the area of our investigation. The article raises a problem of forecasting the reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland on the basis of initial information received from the National Bank of Poland. The studies started with analysis and evaluation of time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland. Then the analysed series were divided into two parts. Based on obtained results, the researchers performed forecasting of the first part of separated time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland with the use of different methods. The above mentioned time series consists of 132 elements. Later on, the researches chose the best forecasting method and that was the basis for initial time series forecasting of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland in mil PLN in retrospective terms during 2010-2021 for the next 2021-2022 years.
The study includes an analysis of the functioning of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of financial security management of these entities. The article covers the identification of threats in the area of finances of the discussed enterprises that arose during the pandemic, as well as the assessment and approach to financial risk management in these entities. As a result, the key categories of threats to the financial security of enterprises, arising during the COVID-19 pandemic, were presented, as well as the assessment of the effectiveness of state services responsible for ensuring financial security. The study focuses on multidimensional data analysis in terms of their grouping and unraveling in terms of comparing the considered variables in terms of dynamics. Initial studies were performed by comparing several variables, and the data were analyzed not only during the COVID-19 pandemic, but also in the pre-pandemic period in terms of observing their fluctuations in dynamic terms, and the relationships between them were also examined.
The purpose of this article is to present the role of the Border Guard in detecting vehicle smuggling on the Podkarpackie section of the Polish-Ukrainian border in 2014-2020. Organized transfer of stolen cars from the European Union to the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States and introduction of cars to the Polish customs territory excluding customs and tax duties is one of the most important threats to the security of Poland and the European Union. Uncontrolled smuggling of stolen vehicles is concentrated mainly in larger border crossing points, and the disclosed attempts show with considerable professionalism, specialization and organization of criminal groups, often with international connections.
The energy security of the Visegrad Group countries is a derivative of their energy potential resulting from the lack of strategic natural gas and crude oil resources, limited fuel storage capacity and limited access to the transmission network. This causes a dependence on supplies of raw materials from Russia, which is not even, but applies to each of these countries. The Czech Republic and Slovakia have small deposits of natural gas and crude oil. Hungary and Poland have greater potential, but it is still not enough to achieve energy independence. The energy market of the V4 countries is of interest to the Russian Federation, but it is not a priority for it as it accounts for a small part of Russian transmissions. Russia aims to keep the market for crude oil and natural gas at a uniform level, but the actions of the V4 countries in terms of diversification of supplies, aimed at increasing the level of energy security, effectively hinder the implementation of this goal. The threat to the energy security of the V4 countries is related to their dependence on gas supplies from Gazprom. The terms of the contracts contain unfavorable clauses that negatively affect the sale of surplus Russian gas, as it is necessary to pay fees for the ordered gas regardless of the scale of its use. The differentiation in the energy policy of the Member States is also worth noting. An example is the lack of clear opposition from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia to the plans to expand the Nord Stream and Turkish Stream gas pipelines. These states show interest in participating in projects, which, in fact, constitute the implementation of the Russian concept of building new transmission routes. Poland takes a different position, consistently preventing the implementation of Russian energy projects.
Since September 11, 2001, airport security control procedures have expanded in the face of the increased threat of terrorist attacks on aircrafts and airports. Obligatory and meticulous checks are carried out on all passengers although the overwhelming majority of passengers do not pose any risk. Current airport control procedures are expensive and inefficient; they extend the time spent by passengers at the airport and contribute to increased crowding; they inhibit the development of interconnected transport systems and significantly reduce the comfort of passengers who pose no threat. As the security needs of air transport morph, security experts are considering replacing the existing across-the-board procedures with personalized and more selective control processes based on data and behavioral analysis to reduce the duration of airport check-in procedures and improve the effectiveness of security controls. Such solutions have been successfully tested over the past decades at Israeli airports and check-in terminals by the Israeli state carrier El Al, which has the reputation of being the best-protected airline in the world. The FLYSEC system, developed and tested in 2015-2018 at Luxembourg Airport in cooperation with the local university, operates on similar principles although its implementation is less invasive. Modern computer tools for analyzing travel history data and data from current bookings as well as algorithmic methods of behavioral analysis based on advanced detection, identification, crowdsourcing and tracking systems all feed into such smart, selective and personalized security controls. Smart, selective control systems are based on the basic assumption that passengers can be accurately and effectively sorted into different risk groups (e.g. low-risk/trusted passengers, normal passengers, high-risk passengers), long before they arrive at the airport and create a real threat. There are many effective techniques for profiling and identifying perpetrators already used in criminology, criminalistics and computer forensics that are also suitable for use in smart security systems to better meet the current and future needs of civil air transport. The article presents the idea and general characteristics of smart, selective and personalized security control systems, followed by structuring of the analytical field and problem analysis in terms of their implementation conditions, opportunities, threats, conflict-forming potentials and controversies, as well as the needs for more detailed research and their suggested directions.
Legal security is understood as the protection of vital goods and human interests by means of universally binding normative acts, which should be legible and understandable for their addressees, because the beneficiary of legal security is man. Due to the complexity of this concept, legal security can be considered from different perspectives in both formal and institutional terms, which has also been considered in this article.
Mediation is an example of one of the alternative methods of resolving legal disputes. Its use is becoming more and more common, and the very idea of using mediation institutions to resolve legal disputes brings many benefits to conflicting parties, which include speed of proceedings or its cheaper costs. On the basis of national legislation, mediation has become a universal institution because it has been regulated in both public and private law. The next step of the legislator was to equip the mediator in civil matters with various methods through which he can conduct mediation proceedings. Therefore, the mediator conducts mediation using various methods aimed at amicable settlement of the dispute, including by supporting the parties in formulating their settlement submissions or at the mutual request of the parties, it may also indicate ways of resolving the dispute which are not binding for the parties. However, the success of mediation is determined not only by the will of the parties, but also by the way the mediator conducts this procedure, which is characteristic of the conflict management formula. In turn, the instruments at the disposal of the mediator in civil matters, in addition to their real impact on increasing the number of mediation proceedings and settlements concluded before the mediator, which is an example of the desired solution, also imply other legal consequences, including optimization of the costs of the process. Therefore, in addition to financial benefits for parties benefiting from mediation by the society, it is worth considering the methods of conducting this procedure in civil matters, which are examples of tools for managing legal security.
Information today is becoming increasingly important, especially in the era of progressive computerization and advancements in the area of computer technology. At the same time, there are also increasingly more threats to this category, of which the most important are criminal offenses against information protection. These are enforced by competent state authorities whose activity is necessary to maintain the proper level of security. The article deals mainly with the phenomenon of crime involving infringement of information, and its scale, using for this purpose the statistical data collected by the Polish National Police Headquarters.