Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

Forecasting of monetary policy tools, including reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland, in order to optimise economic decisions made by business entities operating on this market, becomes a basic canon of knowledge, in order to minimise a risk of undertaken economic operations – is currently the area of our investigation. The article raises a problem of forecasting the reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland on the basis of initial information received from the National Bank of Poland. The studies started with analysis and evaluation of time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland. Then the analysed series were divided into two parts. Based on obtained results, the researchers performed forecasting of the first part of separated time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland with the use of different methods. The above mentioned time series consists of 132 elements. Later on, the researches chose the best forecasting method and that was the basis for initial time series forecasting of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland in mil PLN in retrospective terms during 2010-2021 for the next 2021-2022 years.

The article deals with the VAT gap, its split by causes and determinants, the problem of dependencies. The article also reveals the main ways of calculating the VAT gap - their advantages and disadvantages, summarizes the research done by theoreticians and evaluates the research results. After the theoretical analysis and presentation of the research methodology, the aim is to find out the variables that influence the VAT gap in Lithuania. Using the regression analysis model, the factors determining the VAT gap and their significance, as well as their impact on the decrease / increase of the VAT gap in Lithuania, were identified.

With the changing global security situation, increase in external threats or emergence of new ones (cyberattacks, non-conventional warfare models, etc.), countries must feel concern regarding consolidation of their security. In this regard, both the Republic of Lithuania and Ukraine are taking measures to enhance and expand their military forces. One of the means to fortify military forces is attracting citizens to serve in the civilian national defence service. Authors of the article employ a comparative aspect to analyse the need for statutory servants serving in the civilian national defence service, as well as reveal the number and type of professionals to be required by the national defence system and explore benefits provided by such statutory servants as well as their purpose in the army. Additionally, in the article authors reveal administrational-legal status of civilian national defence services in both the Republic of Lithuania and Ukraine, its place in the system of other militarised or civil public administration institutions. Comparative aspect is also used to analyse administrative legal status of statutory servants of civilian national defence service, peculiarities of admission of statutory servants to the national defence system and their service therein, as well as possibilities for motivation and stimulation of citizens to exercise service in the civilian national defence service. Therefore, the article aims to answer the question of what could motivate citizens to carry out service in the civilian national defence service, what incentives (needs, interests, values, stimulus, realisation of importance of certain matters, remuneration, etc.) would result in motivation (attitude and interest in) to serve in the Lithuanian Armed Forces and to participate in international operations.