Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review

Following Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea, there are few who would doubt Moscow’s endeavours to influence the balance of power in the pan-Baltic region as well. As often as not, such endeavours tend to be analysed after they occur. Russia’s potential to exercise this kind of influence using the Kaliningrad factor was recalled as if apropos of nothing. This is cause to suspect that academic research has so far failed to properly consider Kaliningrad as a geostrategic factor.

In the 21st century – as in the first half of the 20th century – Lithuania has faced threats posed to its national security and statehood. Owing to its limited resources, the country is not essentially able to establish large regular forces; therefore, it is permanently developing its territorial defence forces. In the interwar period, their nucleus was formed by the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union, while in the 21st century it is by the National Defence Volunteer Forces. While modelling new concepts of territorial defence, it is inevitable to consider not only the practices of other countries and their military theories but also Lithuania’s national experience. Of course, this is the experience of 1990-2004, but in the first part of the 20th century the idea of territorial defence was also put into practice and cultivated at the theoretical level. Another aspect is that territorial defence in practice is inextricably entwined with the tactics of guerrilla warfare and their application. Lithuania’s historical experience and analysis of its territorial defence and partisan war is not only knowledge for its own sake. It may have tangible practical value since Lithuania considered, premeditated and applied these notions in practice repeatedly in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the geographical location of the country and distribution of eventual sources of conflict in comparison with the interwar period have virtually not changed. In the interwar period, East Prussia, part of Germany and separated by the Polish Corridor, had been a semi-exclave up until September 1939. Similarly, it is only by sea and air that this territory is accessible at present, though now a subject of the Russian Federation as the Kaliningrad region. Due to geopolitical transformations, after World War II the ‘enemy from the East’ had moved geographically to Western Lithuania. There exists a similar situation on the south-eastern border of Lithuania, where a none-too-friendly interwar Poland changed to a Belarus governed by Alexander Lukashenko. Lithuania’s northern border with Latvia, also a NATO member at present, remains unchanged and comparatively safe; in the interwar period, only attempts were made to discuss the idea of having mutual defence although Latvia had planned to provide some support for the Lithuanian forces in the case of a Wehrmacht attack from East Prussia to the East. So it is expedient to elaborate on what attention the Lithuanian Armed Forces in the interwar period paid to the history of war, what kind of experience of the 20th century territorial defence and partisan resistance they gained, and how this may be of value to defence experts in the 21st century.

Even though permanent compulsory primary military service is an unquestionable military duty, it is very important that it has the support of the public. The question of what motivates young people to volunteer to do their PCPMS will remain relevant as long as the service is in place. This article attempts to identify ways to attract young people to military service. It analyses the value-based context of the Lithuanian public, specifically highlighting the priorities of the younger generation. This allows us to understand what forms the basis of young people’s decisions and the things they would consider in making up their minds to do PCPMS. The article contrasts the views of conscripts and civil young people towards PCPMS, the army and the defence of the country. It aims to develop an understanding of why the former choose PCPMS voluntarily. The article relies on data from quantitative studies – the opinion polls of young Lithuanians (males aged 15-30) and conscripts – conducted by researchers at the Centre for Strategic Research at the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania in 2015-2017. It also relies on data from the European Values Study performed in Lithuania in 2008.

The effectiveness of intelligence operations is directly related to the conduct of intelligence officers and depends on their moral attitudes and system of values. The specifics of intelligence operations may lead to moral dilemmas in the behaviour of the officers. The operating methods of intelligence institutions include both ethical tactical elements and those that run counter to the generally accepted ethical principles that could discredit democracy and the fundamental values that the state advocates. This article analyses the ethical problems that are encountered in the process of using HUMINT, an intelligence method. The authors employ theoretical analysis to construct an initial integral behaviour model of the intelligence officer based on the context of choices and operational implications that could encourage further scientific discussion of the subject.

On the grounds of the theories of the use of the mass media, the authors analyse concepts and assessments of military threats. The analysis is based on the data of representative public opinion polls (conducted in spring 2016 by Vilmorus, N = 1004). The research shows that certain qualities of individual political competence strengthen the impact of the media, that the tabloid press, Russian TV and the quality press affect concepts of military threats, and that sets of factors shaping the concepts of various military threats are different. The extent of the mass media impact is influenced mostly by an individual’s ethnic background, education, income, participation in elections, political education, inter-personal communication on political topics as well as a leftist–rightist self-identification.