Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The study attempts to forecast the total costs of a company in Poland. The first stage of the research was analyzing and evaluating the time series of total costs. It detected: trends, seasonality and a random factor. This became a premise for the application of two methods for forecasting: Holt-Winters’ multiplicative and additive. The research shows that the Holt-Winters’ multiplicative model proved to be better in forecasting total costs in the research subject. The forecasted total costs from July to December 2022 will reach PLN 45 395 685, while from January to December 2023, their value will amount to PLN 85 948 927.

Forecasting of monetary policy tools, including reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland, in order to optimise economic decisions made by business entities operating on this market, becomes a basic canon of knowledge, in order to minimise a risk of undertaken economic operations – is currently the area of our investigation. The article raises a problem of forecasting the reserve money of the Central Bank of Poland on the basis of initial information received from the National Bank of Poland. The studies started with analysis and evaluation of time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland. Then the analysed series were divided into two parts. Based on obtained results, the researchers performed forecasting of the first part of separated time series of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland with the use of different methods. The above mentioned time series consists of 132 elements. Later on, the researches chose the best forecasting method and that was the basis for initial time series forecasting of reserve money of the Central Bank in Poland in mil PLN in retrospective terms during 2010-2021 for the next 2021-2022 years.

The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of employees in the enterprise sector in Poland on a quarterly basis between 2010-2021 and new and withdrawn jobs dynamically in terms of economic security. The volume of employment and salary for work in Poland in the enterprise sector by type of activity was analyzed. The last stage of the research was the analysis and evaluation of the time series of salaries in Poland and its forecasting for the future.