Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

The multidimensional comparative analyzes of transportation of people by rail were used in the article. The time series was analyzed and evaluated in order to detect the following phenomena: trend, seasonality and random factor. The initial time series was divided into parts in order to remove data that, due to the impact of a random phenomenon such as the COVID-19 pandemic, lost trends visible in the past (from January 2012 to December 2019). The Winters’ exponential smoothing method was used for the forecasting. The obtained forecast for 2024 is 390 380 000 passengers transported by rail in Poland. The mean absolute forecast error is 2,18.

A multidimensional analysis of one of main macroeconomic indicators, specifically, unemployment, in the United States was conducted and presented in the article. The research covered several groups of dependent variables, such as: the number of unemployed people in total in the United States monthly, along with unemployment rates, CPI indices, and unemployment in respective US states. The evaluation of the conducted research is that from January 2020 to October 2023 there had been a visible decrease in unemployment rates, and their level is similar to the values recorded from January 2018 to January 2020, which clearly proves that the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been averted. The analysis method was used in the study, i.e. distribution of variables into prime factors and comparison dynamically in order to detect the regularities occurring in them.

The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by air in Europe between 2019-2022 in terms of economic security. Data for the study was taken from Eurostat and categorized line and bar graphs were used. The conducted research shows that in 2021, in each of the considered European countries, an average of 138% of the number of passengers of 2020 were transported by air. In 2022, an increase to 230% of the number of passengers of 2021 was observed. The forecasting of the number of passengers conducted by air transport for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration was made. A naive method was used for the forecasting. In 2023, the largest number of passengers will be transported in Spain, followed by Germany in the second place and France as third. The sum of the forecast of the number of passengers transported for 2023 in 29 European countries under consideration will equal 1 401 839 218 people and will be higher than in 2022 by 296 222 604 people.

The study attempts to forecast the total costs of a company in Poland. The first stage of the research was analyzing and evaluating the time series of total costs. It detected: trends, seasonality and a random factor. This became a premise for the application of two methods for forecasting: Holt-Winters’ multiplicative and additive. The research shows that the Holt-Winters’ multiplicative model proved to be better in forecasting total costs in the research subject. The forecasted total costs from July to December 2022 will reach PLN 45 395 685, while from January to December 2023, their value will amount to PLN 85 948 927.

The research includes a multidimensional comparative analysis of electricity prices in 28 European countries for non-household consumers. The highest energy prices in the first half of 2022 were also ranked in the respective analyzed countries. Increases in electricity prices for non-household consumers were examined in terms of percentage and value from the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2022 and the increases were ranked. Their leader in terms of percentage and value was Greece with the result of 353,50% which constitutes EUR 0,288 of the price increase per 1 KWh in the considered time period. A multiple regression model was also built and showed that the time series of natural gas price quotations had an impact on the increase in electricity prices for non-household consumers.

The study comprises a multidimensional comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by rail in twelve European countries between 2019-2021; the considered data were grouped and analyzed. The dynamics indices with a constant base were used in the study. The aim of the article was a comparative analysis of the number of passengers transported by rail in the European countries under consideration between 2019-2021. The result of the research is the observation of an increase in the number of passengers transported by rail in twelve European countries in 2021 compared to 2020 by 374 965 people. It was visible in nine out of the twelve countries considered. The largest one was observed in France, with around 170 544 passengers. Considering the percentage increase between 2020 and 2021 in respective countries in rail passenger transport, it was observed that the most significant increase was in Italy, which amounted to 25,61%.

The study presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of two dependent variables: the number of passengers transported by air in 28 European countries and the price of one barrel of crude oil in dollars. The conducted analysis shows that in the historical data concerning the identical periods (months) in both tested series, dependencies can be found. This allowed for the construction of a zero-one multiple regression model in order to confirm the impact of the number of passengers travelling by air on the price of one barrel of crude oil and describe this phenomenon with an analytical function.

The multidimensional comparative analysis and the forecasting of minimum salaries in 21 European countries were conducted in the study. The research began with the ranking of the data, the amount of salary rates taken as a basis, the rise expressed in euro and the values of dynamics indices on a constant base. Then the data was aggregated. The time series of the lowest salaries in 21 European countries was analyzed and evaluated. Thus, regularities were observed that were used to select the Holt-Winters’ exponential smoothing method for the forecasting of these salaries. The obtained forecasts were analyzed and evaluated with the use of indices, such as forecasting errors.

The article presents a multidimensional comparative analysis of the impact of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG) prices on the housing price index in 28 European countries. Research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic and the attack of Russia on Ukraine have led to similar large fluctuations in crude oil and LPG prices. This, in turn, contributed to an increase in inflation and house price indices in the 28 analyzed European countries. Such an increase was driven by higher total construction costs, including higher prices for materials, energy and charges for building services. Housing prices in respective European countries vary. The study examines the dynamics of their changes and compares them with the use of ranking.

State security is a key issue both for the state as an entity and for its inhabitants. The economic security of the state is a particularly important component which can manifest itself on many different levels. The most important of them is financial security. This aspect of security is relevant as in modern economies money is the key value. Therefore, the financial security of the state is a component of economic security, but at the same time its key determinant. The level of financial security, which in the simplest terms is an ability to raise funds when needed, is influenced by a number of factors, the most important of which are the stability of the financial sector, the size of public debt, as well as the size and structure of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. This paper attempts to analyze individual factors that affect the condition of financial security of the state. In the next part, a structural analysis of the most important aspects of the state’s financial security was performed. The research showed that the state of Poland’s financial security could now be assessed quite highly, but the effectiveness of all the measures taken by the government and the central bank to date would be verified in the near future through the development of the situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.